Future scenarios #

To project fire activity, you calibrate FLAM on historical data, then rerun it with scenario inputs while keeping the calibrated parameters and q.

1. Calibrate on the historical period. Run steps 1–4 of the workflow with Optimize selected for q. Keep both parameter .ini files and the q folder.
2. Prepare scenario inputs. You need daily weather and, if they change over time, yearly population and fuel. Use the same grid and the same file naming.
3. Create a new Output Folder for the scenario. Tools always write to the same subfolder names, so a shared folder would overwrite your historical results or reuse the wrong a/.
4. Daily Fuel Moisture: run it with the scenario weather.
5. Frequency Probability: Load the historical parameter file. Point the inputs to the scenario data and set the scenario period.
6. Calculate Burned Area: Load the historical parameter file and select Use existing data. As Existing q, select the historical q files, copied to a separate folder as described in Calculate Burned Area.
7. Optionally, run Spread Simulation.

The ¶ button loads the historical paths from the configuration. After clicking it, replace every time-dependent input (weather, moisture, P, and population and fuel if they change) with its scenario equivalent.

Compare scenarios with Graph by adding the A_burn folders of each run.